As António Guterres approaches the end of his second term in 2026, the question of succession is beginning to crystallize within diplomatic circles. Although the formal process remains unchanged, selection by the Security Council followed by appointment by the General Assembly, the underlying political dynamics appear to be shifting in subtle but consequential ways.
Most notably, the informal norms that have historically structured the selection process, including regional rotation, are showing signs of erosion. At the same time, major powers, particularly the United States, are placing greater emphasis on managerial competence and institutional performance. Taken together, these developments may expand the range of viable candidates and increase the likelihood that the eventual choice will emerge from outside the expected regional sequence.
Within this evolving landscape, the profile of a consensus-oriented, operationally credible candidate, such as former Senegalese president Macky Sall, warrants closer consideration.
From Representation to Functionality
The selection of the Secretary-General of the Organisation des Nations Unies has long balanced two competing logics: representational equity and institutional effectiveness. Regional rotation, while never codified, has served as a proxy for legitimacy within the broader membership. At the same time, the Security Council, particularly its five permanent members, has prioritized candidates capable of operating within the constraints of great-power politics.
Recent signals suggest that the balance between these logics may be shifting. Faced with institutional gridlock, budgetary pressures, and declining confidence in multilateral governance, key stakeholders are placing renewed emphasis on “governability”: the ability of the Secretary-General to manage a complex bureaucracy, implement reforms, and deliver tangible outcomes.
This shift does not eliminate representational considerations, but it reduces their determinative role.
The Structural Advantage of Acceptability
In practice, the decisive criterion in the selection process remains negative rather than positive: candidates succeed not because they command universal support, but because they avoid vetoes. This dynamic privileges profiles that are politically unthreatening across multiple axes.
Macky Sall’s candidacy aligns with this requirement. His tenure as president of Senegal was characterized by relative macroeconomic stability and sustained engagement with international partners. His subsequent leadership within the Union africaine further embedded him in multilateral networks without associating him strongly with any single geopolitical bloc.
Crucially, he does not appear to trigger strong opposition from any of the permanent members of the Security Council. In a system where a single veto is decisive, this absence of antagonism constitutes a significant structural asset.
The Implications of a Weakened Rotation Norm
The potential weakening of regional rotation has two important implications. First, it broadens the candidate pool, allowing individuals from regions not “next in line” to remain competitive. Second, it shifts evaluative criteria toward perceived competence and political manageability.
For candidates like Macky Sall, this creates an opening. While he would not have been the presumptive choice under a strict rotational logic, a more fluid framework enables his candidacy to be assessed on functional grounds.
At the same time, the erosion of rotation increases uncertainty. It reduces predictability for member states and complicates coalition-building, potentially prolonging negotiations within the Security Council.
Consensus Formation Under Constraint
Historical patterns suggest that Secretary-General selection often follows a process of elimination rather than affirmation. Early frontrunners may falter due to geopolitical tensions, regional divisions, or opposition from a permanent member. As the field narrows, attention shifts toward candidates capable of commanding minimal consensus.
In such contexts, compromise candidates become increasingly viable. Their relative lack of polarization, initially a disadvantage, becomes an asset as more prominent contenders accumulate opposition.
Macky Sall’s profile is consistent with this trajectory. He is unlikely to dominate early rounds of consideration, but his viability may increase as the selection process advances and constraints tighten.
The succession to António Guterres will unfold within a multilateral system marked by heightened geopolitical competition and institutional strain. While formal procedures remain intact, the informal norms and strategic calculations that shape outcomes are evolving.
In this environment, candidates who combine executive experience, political moderation, and cross-bloc acceptability may hold a latent advantage. Macky Sall exemplifies this category. His candidacy does not rest on inevitability, but on structural compatibility with a selection process defined by veto constraints and the search for equilibrium.
Should the 2026 selection process follow its historical pattern, moving from fragmentation toward constrained consensus, such profiles may prove more competitive than initial expectations would suggest.
